● Live accuracy ledger

The model, scored in public.

Every prediction the Savy's Tips football model makes is logged before kickoff and scored honestly afterwards — win rate, profit & loss, and calibration. Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.

This is the live track record behind Savy's Tips — the free app that gives you these football picks every day, before kickoff, with the reasoning and the odds.

204 settled · 178W–26L · updated 15 Jul
ROI (real stakes)
-2.5%
-6.77u on 274u staked
Win rate
87.3%
178W · 26L
Flat 1u ROI
-1.4%
every pick staked 1u — can't be gamed by bankers
Calibration
0.116
Brier · lower is better (0.25 = coin flip)

The model learns continuously — older picks reflect weaker earlier versions, so longer windows read lower. Nothing is hidden: switch windows to see recent form and the full record.

Performance over time

Cumulative profit and running win rate, day by day — toggle the metric, hover for detail.

-17-13-8.0-3.3+1.325 Jun28 Jun01 Jul04 Jul07 Jul10 Jul13 Jul

By market

Where the edge is — and isn't. Hit-rate and real-stake ROI per market.

MarketSettledHit rateROI
Handicap9688.5%+5.6%
Over / Under7085.7%-9.6%
Other markets2692.3%+0.6%
Double chance875.0%+4.8%
Draw no bet475.0%-30.7%

Recent predictions

The raw record — each logged before kickoff, scored after full time.

DateMatchPickOddsModelResult
13 JulBreidablik vs Keflavík IFAway +2.5 · 3u1.1997%won
13 JulBreidablik vs Keflavík IFOver 0.5 · 3u1.2289%won
13 JulClaypole vs Leones de Rosario FCHome +1 · 3u1.1889%won
13 JulO'Higgins vs CD Nublense (CHI)Home +0.5 · 3u1.3089%won
13 JulO'Higgins vs CD Nublense (CHI)Home or Draw · 3u1.2889%won
13 JulCF Montréal vs Vancouver FCAway +2.5 · 3u1.3089%won
13 JulCD Real Tomayapo vs Independiente PetroleroUnder 2.5 · 3u1.1891%won
13 JulEmelec vs Barcelona SC (ECU)Over 0.5 · 3u1.4491%lost
11 Jul9 de Octubre vs Gualaceo SCUnder 3.5 · 1u1.1886%won
11 JulRiver Plate vs Plaza ColoniaHome +1.25 · 3u1.1991%won
11 JulRiver Plate vs Plaza ColoniaHome +1 · 3u1.2396%won
11 JulSelfoss vs Hviti RiddarinnAway +2.5 · 3u1.2799%won
11 JulSelfoss vs Hviti RiddarinnAway +2.75 · 3u1.2199%won
11 JulÖrgryte vs BK HäckenAway · 3u1.2488%lost
10 JulSpain vs BelgiumHome · 3u1.2590%won
10 JulOakleigh Cannons vs AvondaleHome +1.5 · 3u1.3589%won
10 JulOakleigh Cannons vs AvondaleHome +2 · 3u1.1896%won
10 JulGreen Gully vs Altona MagicAway +2 · 3u1.2093%won
10 JulGreen Gully vs Altona MagicUnder 5.5 · 3u1.3093%won
10 JulNacional Potosí vs Aurora FCUnder 2.5 · 3u1.2190%won
09 JulDinamo City vs FK Astana (KAZ)Away +2.25 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulStjarnan vs VikingurHome +1.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulStjarnan Garðabær vs Víkingur GøtaAway +2.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulFK Sarajevo vs Inter TurkuAway +3 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulNSI Runavik vs Ħamrun Spartans FCAway +2.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulOFK Petrovac vs FK ŽalgirisUnder 4.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulEuropa FC vs KF ShkëndijaUnder 5.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulCaernarfon vs FCI LevadiaUnder 5.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulBohemian FC vs St JosephsAway +3 · 0.5u1.1091%won
09 JulFC Hegelmann vs Paide LinnameeskondUnder 5.5 · 0.5u1.1091%won

These are the picks. Get them free, before kickoff.

Every prediction you see scored here lands in the Savy's Tips app the moment it's made — with the reasoning, the odds, and live results. Free to start, on iOS, Android and the web.

How we compare

Head-to-head accuracy versus Forebet, FootyStats and WinDrawWin on the same fixtures — benchmarked and scored the same way. Rolling out next, once a few weeks of settled results are on the board.

We'll publish a like-for-like table: for every fixture we and a public tipster both called, who was right and what the flat-stake return was. If we don't beat them, this page will say so.

How it's scored

The rules, so the number can't be gamed.

Locked before kickoff

Every prediction is timestamped and stored before the match starts. Nothing is edited after the result.

Real stakes and flat 1u

We show the model's real staked return and a flat 1-unit ROI side by side — flat can't be gamed by piling on bankers.

Win rate isn't profit

A high strike rate on short odds can still lose money. We lead with ROI — real stakes and flat 1u — because that's the number that actually pays.

Everything settled counts

No hiding losers. Wins, losses and voids are all in the record. Voids are excluded from win rate and ROI.