● Live accuracy ledger

The model, scored in public.

Every prediction the Savy's Tips football model makes is logged before kickoff and scored honestly afterwards — win rate, profit & loss, and calibration. Nothing hidden, nothing cherry-picked.

This is the live track record behind Savy's Tips — the free app that gives you these football picks every day, before kickoff, with the reasoning and the odds.

400 settled · 312W–88L · updated 16 Sept
ROI (real stakes)
+7.2%
+31.48u on 439u staked
Win rate
78.0%
312W · 88L
Flat 1u ROI
-2.4%
every pick staked 1u — can't be gamed by bankers
Calibration
0.170
Brier · lower is better (0.25 = coin flip)

The model learns continuously — older picks reflect weaker earlier versions, so longer windows read lower. Nothing is hidden: switch windows to see recent form and the full record.

Performance over time

Cumulative profit and running win rate, day by day — toggle the metric, hover for detail.

-2.8+6.4+16+25+3417 Aug22 Aug27 Aug01 Sept06 Sept11 Sept16 Sept

By market

Where the edge is — and isn't. Hit-rate and real-stake ROI per market.

MarketSettledHit rateROI
Handicap15377.1%+0.9%
Over / Under9582.1%+14.2%
Other markets6376.2%+5.0%
Match result (1X2)4768.1%+8.5%
Double chance3482.4%+6.3%
Draw no bet8100.0%+35.4%

Recent predictions

The raw record — each logged before kickoff, scored after full time.

DateMatchPickOddsModelResult
16 SeptBoyacá Chicó vs Alianza Valledupar FCAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
16 SeptIndy Eleven vs BrooklynUnder 4.5 · 0.5u1.2879%won
15 SeptFram Reykjavík vs Breidablik KópavogurAway +2 · 3u1.3084%won
15 SeptReading FC vs Brentford FCHome +3 · 3u1.20won
15 SeptGlentoran FC vs Coleraine FCAway +1 · 1.5u1.1992%won
15 SeptWest Ham United vs Fulham FCAway team under 2.5 · 1u1.22lost
15 SeptBarry Town vs AmmanfordHome · 1u1.22lost
15 SeptBallymena United vs Carrick RangersAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
15 SeptSouthend United vs TamworthHome or Away · 3u1.2087%won
15 SeptBallymena United vs Carrick RangersUnder 4.5 · 2u1.2086%won
15 SeptMiddlesbrough FC vs Millwall FCUnder 4.5 · 1.5u1.2086%won
15 SeptMiddlesbrough FC vs Millwall FCAway +2.5 · 1.5u1.1889%won
15 SeptFK Třinec vs FK Mladá BoleslavUnder 5.5 · 1.5u1.1887%won
15 SeptCF Pachuca vs Club LeónUnder 5.5 · 2u1.2086%won
15 SeptAvaí SC vs Vila Nova FCUnder 3.5 · 3u1.20won
14 SeptVíkingur Reykjavík vs Keflavík IFHome · 3u1.2087%won
14 SeptRed Star FC vs FC MetzAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
14 SeptStal Mielec vs Bruk-Bet Termalica NiecieczaAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
14 SeptRadomiak Radom vs Piast GliwiceAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
14 SeptHapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi HaifaAway · 0.5u1.4470%won
14 SeptComo Calcio vs ParmaHome · 3u1.2287%won
14 SeptCD Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAMAway +2 · 1.5u1.3087%lost
14 SeptCSD Municipal vs Deportivo MalacatecoHome · 1u1.3385%lost
14 SeptAustin FC II vs Colorado Rapids 2Home · 2.5u1.2285%won
14 SeptCD Real Tomayapo vs BolívarHome or Away · 1.5u1.2284%won
14 SeptCD Real Tomayapo vs BolívarOver 2.5 · 3u1.45won
14 SeptPortland Thorns vs Chicago Stars FCHome · 1.5u1.27lost
14 SeptIndependiente vs San LorenzoAway +1.5 · 1.5u1.1987%won
13 SeptRB Leipzig vs Hamburger SVHome · 1u1.3576%won
13 SeptSiwelele FC vs Lamontville Golden ArrowsAway +1 · 1.5u1.1890%won

These are the picks. Get them free, before kickoff.

Every prediction you see scored here lands in the Savy's Tips app the moment it's made — with the reasoning, the odds, and live results. Free to start, on iOS, Android and the web.

How we compare

Head-to-head accuracy versus Forebet, FootyStats and WinDrawWin on the same fixtures — benchmarked and scored the same way. Rolling out next, once a few weeks of settled results are on the board.

We'll publish a like-for-like table: for every fixture we and a public tipster both called, who was right and what the flat-stake return was. If we don't beat them, this page will say so.

How it's scored

The rules, so the number can't be gamed.

Locked before kickoff

Every prediction is timestamped and stored before the match starts. Nothing is edited after the result.

Real stakes and flat 1u

We show the model's real staked return and a flat 1-unit ROI side by side — flat can't be gamed by piling on bankers.

Win rate isn't profit

A high strike rate on short odds can still lose money. We lead with ROI — real stakes and flat 1u — because that's the number that actually pays.

Everything settled counts

No hiding losers. Wins, losses and voids are all in the record. Voids are excluded from win rate and ROI.